May 2007

State of the Local Real Estate Market
We read the real estate news stories in the papers and online. How best to interpret the headlines and get to the meat of the story? Key words in these reports include “new homes”, “existing homes” and “resale homes”. Some stories are based on statistics, which refer to “average” prices or “median” prices. Other issues to consider when balancing the subject matter are: what is the source of the news release? Is it a college/university study, an industry group, a citizens watchdog group, a staff writer at the paper interpreting the data from an industry group? We receive volumes of data and information to sift though, and understanding what we’re reading is key to the story.

Last month, the median price of an existing home in San Diego County was $610,970, an increase of 1.6% from April 2006. In the 1st quarter of 2007, new home sales in San Diego County increased by 6% from a year ago to an average sales price of $544,272. Total sales of homes also increased in that period of time. Nationally, new homes sales in April increased 16%, the highest jump in new home sales month over month in 14 years. At the same time, the average price on a new home sale nationwide is down 11% to $229,100 – the April 2006 average sale price was $257,000. The nationwide numbers are interesting but have little if any bearing on our local market. San Diego’s diverse economy, incredible weather, plentitude of natural beauty and our laid back attitude keeps us different that way.

On May 9, The Federal Reserve left short-term interest rates unchanged at 5.25%. Their reasoning was inflation continues to pose a risk to the United States economy. The Fed also signaled that they are not more inclined to raise rates. The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.1%, a 15-year fixed rate mortgage at 5.82%, and a 1-year adjustable rate mortgage at 5.71% as of May 25.

The nation’s largest homebuilders, including Toll Brothers, Pulte Homes, D.R. Horton and Hovnanian, continue to report slumping sales. Stricter lending requirements for buyers are a primary reason cited. Typically, new homes are built in released phases of 4 to 8 homes, with new phases for sale once the previous phase has sold out. In this manner, builders can better control costs. Publicly traded companies have had to alter their projected sales figures.

Please feel free to contact me anytime for all your real estate questions, needs and referrals.

Average Sale Price by Zip Code (San Diego Association of REALTORS).
(If there is a neighborhood or zip code you would like to see tracked just let me know. Call me at 619-248-4200 or email me at kenbaer@willisallen.com)

Neighborhood	Zip Code	April 2007	April 2006	April 2005
Downtown	92101	$698,254	$783,551	$644,555
Golden Hill	92102	$394,250	$448,071	$502,875
Mission Hills	92103	$865,708	$1,207,769	$1,018,178
North Park	92104	$586,294	$609,250	$563,945
Point Loma	92106	$1,137,147	$1,137,800	$939,031
Ocean Beach	92107	$949,958	$865,000	$890,116
Mission Valley	92108	$418,023	$369,056	$378,068
Pacific Beach	92109	$1,214,994	$1,186,444	$1,029,823
Linda Vista	92111	$495,825	$534,568	$554,105
College	92115	$515,541	$525,442	$524,306
Kensington	92116	$607,111	$587,400	$633,725
Clairemont	92117	$543,107	$583,261	$612,744
Coronado	92118	$2,416,000	$3,088,375	$1,731,523
Del Cerro	92120	$555,150	$597,645	$726,804
University City	92122	$706,812	$789,333	$733,797
Mira Mesa	92126	$511,250	$538,134	$525,033
Santaluz	92127	$966,072	$980,190	$1,021,119
Rancho Penasquitos	92129	$667,375	$693,450	$697,261
Carmel Valley	92130	$1,155,262	$1,165,202	$1,308,387
Scripps Ranch	92131	$858,090	$752,687	$836,899
Chula Vista	91910	$697,214	$606,933	$597,689
Imperial Beach	91932	$579,500	$481,271	$558,500
La Mesa	91941	$570,200	$678,510	$589,860
Spring Valley	91978	$575,490	$560,611	$614,571
Cardiff	92007	$888,932	$1,133,625	$1,128,571
Carlsbad	92008	$1,069,653	$732,569	$771,837
Del Mar	92014	$1,798,915	$1,602,250	$1,845,416
El Cajon	92020	$560,876	$530,213	$549,703
Encinitas	92024	$1,016,754	$943,895	$1,181,519
Escondido	92026	$522,171	$607,244	$542,265
La Jolla	92037	$2,312,496	$2,431,787	$1,963,187
Oceanside	92054	$567,818	$602,902	$594,314
Poway	92064	$736,187	$790,756	$708,451
Rancho Santa Fe	92067	$3,336,054	$3,666,730	$3,389,176
Santee	92071	$460,186	$500,468	$466,096
Solana Beach	92075	$815,000	$1,422,857	$1,533,571
Vista	92084	$594,402	$764,702	$604,065